Sunday is a pretty small slate with only eight games but there are some very questionable pitching options. The good news is even though we likely have to spend a pretty penny on pitching, some cheap offenses could be in fantastic matchups to exploit and still afford some of the big bats!
Phillies
As an offense, they are running very hot right now and that trend may not stop on Sunday. Cory Abbott only has nine innings in the majors this year and the 1.00 ERA is very misleading when you see an xFIP closing in on 5.00. Throughout his career, each side of the plate has at least a .341 wOBA against him with a HR/9 of at least 2.70. It could be bombs away in Philly and Abbott is throwing his fastball a ton. It's allowed an ISO of at least .286 against either side and a wOBA of at least .389 and the lineup mostly mash that pitch. Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Jean Segura all have an ISO over .260 against that pitch, and Segura is especially interesting given the state of the 2B position today. Seriously, it's just a sea of red IL's and DTD's up top at the position and every hitter from that group has a wOBA of at least .323 against righties (they are led by Darick Hall and .389 through 98 plate appearances) this year except for Castellanos. However, he's heating up with a .385 average and a .990 OPS in his last 10 games and he's still super affordable. Castellanos is not this bad of a hitter and he could really have a big last couple of months for Philly. Alec Bohm could be in the same boat as he's averaged 10 DK over his past 10 with a .350 average and .956 OPS. Abbott doesn't bring a lot of strikeout ability to the table at just 19% when facing a righty and the bullpen ranked as the worst on the slate yet again. You can really stack up the affordable Phillies and leave plenty to spend on pitching here.
Targets - Castellanos, Bohm, Segura, Darick Hall, Hoskins, Schwarber, Realmuto
Note - Segura didn't make the lineup, which doesn't help the wasteland that is 2B
Brewers
It has to be noted that stacking against Graham Ashcraft can be frustrating at times just because he gets so many ground balls (53.4% ground ball rate) but his lack of strikeouts and general lack of stuff can also get him into big trouble. He's been a little worse on the road and righties have been the bane of his existence so far with a .385 wOBA, a 1.59 HR/9, and a 4.73 FIP. The cutter is the pitch he uses the most to both sides but it's allowing a .194 ISO when thrown against righties along with a .391 wOBA and Willy Adames, Luis Urias, and Tyrone Taylor all have an ISO over .225 and a wOBA over .370 against the pitch. From the left side, Rowdy Tellez and Victor Caratini both have an ISO of at least .269 so there is a danger for Ashcraft from both sides of the plate. He's also in the middle of the zone at least 18.6% of the time and Christian Yelich, Adames, Tellez, Urias, Renfroe, and Taylor all have a barrel/PA of at least 10.9% and the bottom of the lineup carries a HR/PA of at least 8.6%. They're a bit pricey but Urais and Taylor do offer some relief and can fit nicely with any build.
Targets - Adames, Urias, Taylor, Tellez, Caratini, Yelich, Kolten Wong, Andrew McCutchen
Orioles
The Baltimore lineup set up really well for us today as they face Bryse Wilson of the Buccos, who absolutely cannot get lefties out this season. He's faced 120 this year and has allowed a .475 wOBA, a .390 average, and. WHIP over 2.00. In the last 59 plate appearances, those issues have gotten worse with a .516 wOBA and .393 ISO so the top of the Orioles lineup especially looks excellent. Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Terrin Vavra, and Anthony Santander all hit from the left side and they all hit the fastball well. Mullins, Rutschman, and Santander have a .250 ISO or higher against the fastball and Wilson throws it 46.7% of the time even though it allows a .426 wOBA and .229 ISO. For Vavra, he only has a sample size of 25 fastballs but carries a .250 ISO and a whopping .728 wOBA. He's hit for a wOBA over .400 in the minors this year and at the minimum, he's the premier salary-saver in my mind today. All four of these hitters have a SwStr% of 10.6% or far less and Wilson doesn't miss bats with that pitch. From there, we can add in Rougned Odor or Brett Phillips from the left side and this offense fits very well with Philly, even with a potential double-ace approach.
Targets - Vavra, Rutschman, Mullins, Santander, Odor, Phillips, Ryan Mountcastle
Honorable Mention
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Yankees
